John Lettieri, President and CEO of Economic Innovation Group | Official Website
John Lettieri, President and CEO of Economic Innovation Group | Official Website
Among Pennsylvania’s counties, Forest County saw the largest increase in transfer dependency over the past 10 years, surging 7.9% from 40% in 2012 to 47.9% in 2022, and up 32.8% from just 15.1% in 1970. In dollar terms, government transfers per capita in Forest County jumped from $9,872 in 2012 to $13,416 in 2022, a stark contrast to the $2,715 recorded in 1970.
Cameron County followed with the second-largest increase in transfer dependency, increasing 7% from 29.4% in 2012 to 36.4% in 2022, and an overall increase of 27.9% from 1970’s 8.5% transfer dependency. This trend is reflected in per capita amounts, with residents of Cameron County receiving an average of $18,415 in transfer income in 2022, up from $13,914 in 2012 and more than double the $2,715 recorded in 1970.
Additionally, Forest County had the highest percentage of income derived from government transfers, at 47.9% in 2022, making it the county with the highest overall transfer dependency. Venango County and Cameron County followed, with transfer dependency rates of 36.7% and 36.4% in 2022, respectively.
Compared to 1970, Forest County increased by 32.8%, while Venango County and Cameron County have increased by 23.2% and 27.9%, respectively, showing sustained reliance on government transfers. Residents in Forest County received an average of $13,416 in transfers per capita, with Venango County and Cameron County close behind at $17,835 and $18,415, respectively.
For comparison, the statewide average was 20.1% in 2022, showing a higher dependency than the national average of 17.6%. On a per capita level, this translates to $12,986 per resident in 2022, compared to $11,542 nationwide.
Government transfer payments are non-repayable funds provided by federal, state, or local governments to support individuals in need. These payments aim to stabilize economic conditions and provide financial support during hardships. Key programs include Social Security transfers (retirement benefits), Medicare transfers (healthcare for seniors), Medicaid transfers (healthcare for low-income individuals), and income maintenance transfers (financial assistance for basic needs).
In Pennsylvania, reliance on government transfers was just 9.5% (or $2,309 per capita in inflation-adjusted 2022 dollars) in 1970. This has since increased to 20.1% (or $12,986 per capita) in 2022, reflecting a total increase of 10.6% since 1970. This shift is largely influenced by increased healthcare costs, and economic transformations that have reshaped income sources across the U.S.
In 2022, the primary government transfer programs in Pennsylvania included:
- Social Security: $4,336 (33.4% of total transfers)
- Medicare: $3,177 (24.5% of total transfers)
- Medicaid: $3,300 (25.4% of total transfers)
- Income Maintenance Programs: $1,209 (9.3% of total transfers)
With 19.5% of the population aged 65 and older, Pennsylvania has a significant demand for programs like Social Security and Medicare. However, counties with higher poverty rates also show elevated Medicaid and income maintenance participation.
Government transfers have long been a modest financial safety net, historically comprising only a small fraction of Americans' income. However, since the 1970s—sometimes dubbed the “Great Transfer-mation”—dependency has surged from 8.2% (or $2,022 per capita in inflation-adjusted 2022 dollars) in 1970 to 17.6% (or $11,542 per capita) in 2022 nationwide. In Pennsylvania, reliance on government transfers has similarly increased from 9.5% (or $2,309 per capita) in 1970 to 20.1% (or $12,986 per capita) in 2022, reflecting broader national trends.
According to the Economic Innovation Group’s analysis, these trends are not merely short-term responses to economic pressures but rather reflect a profound, long-term transformation in how government support is integrated into American life. The study illustrates that structural shifts—from rising healthcare expenses and demographic changes to stagnant wages—have significantly increased dependency on government transfers.
| County | Dependency on Transfers (%) | Change Since 2012 | Change Since 1970 | Per Capita Amount (2022) | Per Capita Change Since 2012 | Per Capita Change Since 1970 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adams County | 21.4% | 3.4% | 13.9% | $11,892 | $3,057 | $10,194 |
| Allegheny County | 17.3% | -0.4% | 8.2% | $12,236 | $1,569 | $9,851 |
| Armstrong County | 26.5% | 1.3% | 14.2% | $14,396 | $2,521 | $12,037 |
| Beaver County | 26.6% | 1.9% | 17.2% | $14,576 | $2,560 | $12,576 |
| Bedford County | 29.3% | 3.5% | 16.9% | $14,480 | $3,525 | $12,250 |
| Berks County | 21.2% | 1.5% | 12.6% | $12,311 | $2,301 | $10,178 |
| Blair County | 27.8% | 1.9% | 13.8% | $15,291 | $3,351 | $12,450 |
| Bradford County | 27.5% | 4.7% | 16.2% | $13,251 | $3,069 | $11,043 |
| Bucks County | 13.6% | 0.8% | 8.3% | $11,805 | $2,619 | $10,442 |
| Butler County | 16.5% | 0.5% | 8.3% | $11,413 | $1,933 | $9,571 |
| Cambria County | 35% | 5.8% | 20.6% | $16,796 | $4,135 | $14,049 |
| Cameron County | 36.4% | 7% | 27.9% | $18,415 | $4,501 | $16,382 |
| Carbon County | 23.7% | 1.2% | 9.7% | $13,892 | $2,940 | $11,140 |
| Centre County | 16.2% | 1.9% | 8.9% | $8,841 | $2,029 | $7,498 |
| Chester County | 9.7% | 0.4% | 4.3% | $9,806 | $2,064 | $8,251 |
| Clarion County | 30.6% | 4.5% | 19.2% | $14,222 | $2,647 | $11,939 |
| Clearfield County | 27.3% | 2.6% | 13.3% | $14,270 | $3,092 | $11,681 |
| Clinton County | 28.3% | 3.8% | 15.1% | $12,968 | $3,014 | $10,509 |
| Columbia County | 25.8% | 2.4% | 13.1% | $12,854 | $2,840 | $10,233 |
| Crawford County | 31.7% | 5.4% | 20.8% | $15,142 | $4,179 | $12,892 |
| Cumberland County | 16.8% | 1.3% | 10.7% | $10,959 | $2,154 | $9,378 |
| Dauphin County | 21.6% | 2.6% | 12.5% | $12,491 | $2,631 | $10,211 |
| Delaware County | 16.4% | 0.6% | 9.3% | $12,830 | $2,606 | $10,861 |
| Elk County | 27.7% | 3.4% | 17.8% | $13,910 | $2,240 | $11,844 |
| Erie County | 27.5% | 4.5% | 18.4% | $14,153 | $3,495 | $12,073 |
| Fayette County | 34.3% | 3.7% | 17.5% | $16,531 | $3,290 | $13,437 |
| Forest County | 47.9% | 7.9% | 32.8% | $13,416 | $3,544 | $10,701 |
| Franklin County | 21.9% | 2.6% | 14% | $12,092 | $2,981 | $10,257 |
| Fulton County | 27.5% | 3% | 16.5% | $13,201 | $2,745 | $11,427 |
| Greene County | 29.3% | 4.9% | 11.4% | $14,564 | $3,453 | $11,484 |
| Huntingdon County | 29.2% | 1.9% | 15.8% | $13,171 | $2,636 | $10,845 |
| Indiana County | 29.3% | 4% | 17.3% | $13,336 | $2,925 | $11,129 |
| Jefferson County | 30.3% | 4.5% | 17.2% | $14,431 | $2,924 | $11,875 |
| Juniata County | 21% | -2.3% | 10.5% | $11,913 | $2,343 | $9,860 |
| Lackawanna County | 25.4% | 0.7% | 11.8% | $13,869 | $1,984 | $10,996 |
| Lancaster County | 17.4% | -0.2% | 10.7% | $10,980 | $2,175 | $9,275 |
| Lawrence County | 30.5% | 3% | 19.2% | $15,463 | $2,971 | $13,080 |
| Lebanon County | 22.3% | 2% | 14.2% | $12,548 | $2,882 | $10,687 |
| Lehigh County | 19.8% | 1.7% | 12.7% | $12,427 | $2,505 | $10,620 |
| Luzerne County | 26.5% | 1.2% | 12.8% | $13,413 | $1,903 | $10,507 |
| Lycoming County | 27.1% | 5.1% | 16.7% | $13,490 | $3,393 | $11,269 |
| McKean County | 30.6% | 6.9% | 18.3% | $14,906 | $3,683 | $12,252 |
| Mercer County | 31.2% | 3.5% | 21.5% | $14,941 | $3,218 | $12,841 |
| Mifflin County | 29.4% | 0.1% | 18.9% | $13,572 | $2,093 | $11,457 |
| Monroe County | 23% | 2.2% | 14.2% | $12,099 | $3,490 | $9,895 |
| Montgomery County | 11.9% | 1.3% | 6.8% | $11,142 | $2,144 | $9,354 |
| Montour County | 21.1% | 2.9% | 5.7% | $13,951 | $3,665 | $10,857 |
| Northampton County | 19.4% | 0.7% | 10.7% | $12,350 | $2,435 | $10,274 |
| Northumberland County | 30.7% | 3.4% | 17% | $14,644 | $3,117 | $11,831 |
| Perry County | 22.5% | 1.8% | 12.7% | $12,147 | $2,808 | $10,150 |
| Philadelphia County | 28.3% | 4.8% | 16.2% | $16,072 | $3,069 | $13,124 |
| Pike County | 21.9% | 0.3% | 11.6% | $12,484 | $2,644 | $9,966 |
| Potter County | 31.5% | 4.1% | 18.2% | $15,254 | $3,993 | $12,888 |
| Schuylkill County | 29% | 1.7% | 14.8% | $14,106 | $2,562 | $11,162 |
| Snyder County | 28.4% | 2.2% | 15.3% | $14,679 | $3,384 | $11,897 |
| Somerset County | 29.8% | 4.4% | 16.3% | $14,166 | $3,156 | $11,664 |
| Sullivan County | 29.6% | 2% | 15.8% | $16,605 | $3,574 | $14,213 |
| Susquehanna County | 23.6% | 1.3% | 11.7% | $13,888 | $4,051 | $11,567 |
| Tioga County | 29.2% | 5.6% | 17.6% | $13,403 | $3,232 | $11,288 |
| Union County | 19.4% | 1.2% | 8.8% | $9,898 | $2,423 | $7,739 |
| Venango County | 36.7% | 5.9% | 23.2% | $17,835 | $4,524 | $14,745 |
| Warren County | 31.4% | 6.7% | 21.8% | $15,398 | $4,317 | $13,176 |
| Washington County | 20% | 0.7% | 8.7% | $13,241 | $2,167 | $10,811 |
| Wayne County | 28.2% | 3.1% | 16.1% | $14,968 | $4,024 | $12,523 |
| Westmoreland County | 23.8% | 2.7% | 13.8% | $14,161 | $2,851 | $11,969 |
| Wyoming County | 24.1% | 2.8% | 13.3% | $13,099 | $3,142 | $10,868 |
| York County | 20.6% | 3% | 13.6% | $11,831 | $2,794 | $10,027 |
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